منابع مشابه
Dynamic Choice under Ambiguity
This paper analyzes sophisticated dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It characterizes Backward Induction and a single-person version of Subgame Perfection via axioms on preferences over decision trees. Furthermore, it indicates how to elicit conditional preferences from prior preferences. The key axiom is a weakening of Dynamic Consistency, deemed Sophistication. The analys...
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An outcome is ambiguous if it is an incomplete description of the probability distribution over consequences. An incomplete description is identified with the set of probabilities that satisfy the incomplete description. A choice problem is ambiguous if the decision maker is choosing between incompletely described outcomes, that is, between sets of probabilities. This paper develops the theory ...
متن کاملA two-person dynamic equilibrium under ambiguity
This paper describes a pure-exchange, continuous-time economy with two heterogeneous agents and complete markets. A novel feature of the economy is that agents perceive some security returns as ambiguous in the sense often attributed to Frank Knight. The equilibrium is described completely in closed-form. After identifying agents as countries, the model is applied to address the consumption hom...
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We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a signilicant premium to bet on their judgments. These data cannot be expl...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2006
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.948928